Tue, 7 September 2021
Rainfall and Temperature Outlook over Maldives
For September 2021
Rainfall is likely to be above normal in northern atolls, normal in central atolls and below normal in southern atolls during September 2021. Temperature is expected to be slightly above normal during the month.
This consensus outlook for Maldives has been developed through assessments including prevailing regional and global climate condition and prediction of various models, seasonal forecast of WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (LC-LRFMME), NMME Forecasts of Monthly Climate Anomalies and monthly forecasts of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
El Niño -Southern Oscillation (ENSO): ENSO-neutral condition presents with near-to-below average Equatorial Sea SurfaceTemperatures across most of the Pacific Ocean. Global models indicate ENSO-neutral condition to prevail duirng September.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): IOD index is negative and models indicate same condition during the month.
Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO): MJO index is over Indian Ocean (phase 2) at the beginning of September. Some models indicate eastward propagation with increasing amplitude towards 2nd week and enter into Maritime continent. It is likely over the same region and become weak towards end of the month.